Warner Bros./Universal / Warner Bros./Universal
The biggest pop culture event of the year is upon us. The 2024 Oscars ceremony is this weekend, and everyone is asking one question: Who is going to win? An endless parade of precursor awards like the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, and the SAG Awards, have given some clues to potential victors, but no one really knows for sure who is going to win Best Picture, Best Actress, and the other 21 categories.
Will the two movies that made up last summer’s Barbenheimer phenomenon, Oppenheimer and Barbie, emerge triumphant? Or will underdogs like The Holdovers or Poor Things impress enough voters to secure surprise wins? Digital Trends will look into a crystal ball and give our best guess as to who will win, who will go home empty-handed, and who might pull off an upset.
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Best Picture:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Who is going to win? Oppenheimer. When the nominations were announced, it was a two-way horse race between it and Barbie, but the latter movie has since faded. Besides, Oppenheimer is the rare movie that’s a financial blockbuster, a cultural phenomenon, and a critical darling. Films like that rare, and the Academy will want to enshrine it in its hall of fame.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Who is going to win? Cillian Murphy. It’s tempting to pick Giamatti here, and in most years, he’s be a slam dunk, but Murphy has the Oppenheimer train supporting him, and he won both the Golden Globe and the SAG award for Best Actor.
Best Actress
Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Emma Stone – Poor Things
Who is going to win? This is the only major category that’s still a bit of an enigma, but I’m leaning toward Lily Gladstone due to her win at the SAG Awards last month. A lot of people are banking on Emma Stone as a potential spoiler, but my money is on Sandra Hüller. Anatomy of a Fall has tons of momentum right now, and her big fight scene (“You are not a victim!”) has made the rounds on social media.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
America Ferrera – Barbie
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Who is going to win? Da’Vine Joy Randolph. She’s won every major precursor award. Plus, she actually deserves it.
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Who is going to win? Robert Downey Jr. A past nominee for Chaplin and Tropic Thunder, the ex-Iron Man is due for his Oscar, and it won’t be for Doctor Dolittle 2.
Best Director
Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet
Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese
Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos
The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer
Who is going to win? Christopher Nolan. It’s time to honor the only director who can bring in a crowd for a three-hour movie about nuclear physics.
Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Who is going to win? It’s a toss-up between American Fiction and Barbie, but I’m leaning toward American Fiction.
Neon
Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Who is going to win? It’s between Anatomy of a Fall or Past Lives. The former has more momentum, so I’m going with Anatomy of a Fall.
Best Original Song
The Fire Inside – Flamin’ Hot (Diane Warren)
I’m Just Ken – Barbie (Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt)
It Never Went Away – American Symphony (Jon Batiste, Dan Wilson)
Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People) – Killers of the Flower Moon (Scott George)
What Was I Made For? – Barbie (Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell)
Who is going to win? Billie and Barbie have this locked down.
Best Original Score
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who is going to win? Ludwig Göransson‘s lush, forceful score for Oppenheimer is the most memorable, and the one to beat.
Best International Feature
Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest
Who is going to win? If a nominee in this category is also a Best Picture nominee as well, it stands an excellent chance of winning: The Zone of Interest.
Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Who is going to win? This is tough call between Sony’s critically acclaimed Miles Morales sequel and Hayao Miyazaki’s not-so-final film. I want The Boy and the Heron to win this, but I think it will go to Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Best Costume Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who is going to win? Poor Things. The costumes are the showiest, so it will edge out its main competition, Barbie.
Best Make-up and Hairstyling
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Who is going to win? Maestro has the much-talked about nose, so it will probably win here.
Best Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who is going to win? Barbie‘s Dream House should edge out Poor Things‘ steampunk cityscapes, but don’t be surprised if it doesn’t.
Warner Bros. Pictures
Best Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Who is going to win? It makes sense that Oppenheimer wins here, but don’t count out Johnnie Burn’s extraordinary work on The Zone of Interest.
Best Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who is going to win? The conventional wisdom is that the Best Picture winner also snags Best Editing unless there’s an action movie in the mix. There aren’t any this year, so this award belongs to Oppenheimer.
Best Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who is going to win? Killers of the Flower Moon has the visuals that usually win in this category, but Oppenheimer cannot be denied.
Best Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Who is going to win? The sentimental favorite here is Godzilla Minus One, which managed to pulled off its impressive special effects with a budget of less than $20 million. But I wouldn’t be surprised if The Creator wins instead.
Godzilla Minus One Toho International / Toho International
Best Live Action Short
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Who is going to win? Oscar has a chance to honor Wes Anderson with The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, so they will probably pick that one.
Best Animated Short
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Who is going to win? Oscar tends to like shorts that have the Holocaust as its main subject, so Letter to a Pig it is.
Best Documentary Feature
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
Who is going to win? Ukraine’s 20 Days in Mariupol.
Best Documentary Short
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island In Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó
Who is going to win? The ABCs of Book Banning although Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó could surprise due to its availability on Disney+.
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